Gold

Gold is a monetary metal whose price is determined by inflation, by fluctuations in the dollar and U.S. stocks, by currency-related crises, interest rate volatility and international tensions, and by increases or decreases in the prices of other commodities. The price of gold reacts to supply and demand changes and can be influenced by consumer spending and overall levels of affluence.

Gold is different from other precious metals such as platinum, palladium and silver because the demand for these precious metals arises principally from their industrial applications. Gold is produced primarily for accumulation; other commodities are produced primarily for consumption. Gold’s value does not arise from its usefulness in industrial or consumable applications. It arises from its use and worldwide acceptance as a store of value. Gold is the only HonestMoney in the world.

In contrast to other commodities, gold does not perish, tarnish or corrode, nor does gold have quality grades . Gold mined thousands of years ago is no different from gold mined today.

HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION

Gold is renowned as a hedge against inflation. The most consistent factor determining the price of gold has been inflation - as inflation goes up, the price of gold goes up along with it. Since the end of World War II, the five years in which U.S. inflation was at its highest were 1946, 1974, 1975, 1979, and 1980. During those five years, the average real return on stocks, as measured by the Dow, was -12.33%; the average real return on gold was 130.4%.

Today, a number of factors are conspiring to create the perfect inflationary storm: extremely stimulative monetary policy, a major tax cut, a long term decline in the dollar, a spike in oil prices, a mammoth trade deficit, and America’s status as the world’s biggest debtornation. Almost across the board, commodity prices are up despite the short-term absence of a weakening dollar which is often viewed as the principal reason for stronger commodity prices.

Oil, Inflation and Gold

Although the prices of gold and oil don't exactly mirror one another, there is no question that oil prices do affect gold prices. If oil prices rise or fall sharply, investors can expect a corresponding reaction in gold prices, often with a lag.

There have been two major upward moves in the price of gold since it was freed to float in 1968. The first occurred between 1972 and 1974 when oil prices climbed 325%, from $2.44 to $10.36. During the same period, gold prices rose 268% (on a quarterly average basis) from $47.45 to $174.76.

The second major price move occurred between 1978 and 1980, when oil prices increased 105%, from $12.70 to $26.00. Over the same period, quarterly average gold prices rose 254% from $178.33 to $631.40.

 HEDGE AGAINST A DECLINING DOLLAR

Gold is bought and sold in U.S. dollars, so any decline in the value of the dollar causes the price of gold to rise. The U.S. dollar is the world's reserve currency - the primary medium for international transactions, the principal store of value for savings, the currency in which the worth of commodities and equities are calculated, and the currency primarily held as reserves by the world's central banks. However, now that it has been stripped of its gold backing, the dollar is nothing more than a fancy piece of paper.

GOLD AS A SAFE HAVEN

Despite the fact that the United States is the world's only remaining superpower, there are a myriad of problems festering around the world, any one of which could erupt with little warning. Gold has often been called the "crisis commodity" because it tends to outperform other investments during periods of world tensions. The very same factors that cause other investments to suffer cause the price of gold to rise. A bad economy can sink poorly run banks. Bad banks can sink an entire economy. And, perhaps most importantly to the rest of the world, the integration of the global economy has made it possible for banking and economic failures to destabilize the world economy.

As banking crises occur, the public begins to distrust paper assets and turns to gold for a safe haven.

When all else fails, governments rescue themselves with the printing press, making their currency worth less and gold worth more. Gold has always risen the most when confidence in government is at its lowest.

 GOLD STORE OF VALUE

One major reason investors look to gold as an asset class is because it will always maintain an intrinsic value. Gold will not get lost in an accounting scandal or a market collapse. Economist Stephen Harmston of Bannock Consulting had this to say in a 1998 report for the World Gold Council, “…although the gold price may fluctuate, over the very long run gold has consistently reverted to its historic purchasing power parity against other commodities and intermediate products. Historically, gold has proved to be an effective preserver of wealth. It has also proved to be a safe haven in times of economic and social instability. In a period of a long bull run in equities, with low inflation and relative stability in foreign exchange markets, it is tempting for investors to expect continual high rates of return on investments. It sometimes takes a period of falling stock prices and market turmoil to focus the mind on the fact that it may be important to invest part of one’s portfolio in an asset that will, at least, hold its value.”

Today is the scenario that the World Gold Council report was referring to in 1998.

GOLD PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFIER

The most effective way to diversify your portfolio and protect the wealth created in the stock and financial markets is to invest in assets that are negatively correlated with those markets. Gold is the ideal diversifier for a stock portfolio, simply because it is among the most negatively correlated assets to stocks.

Investment advisors recognize that diversification of investments can improve overall portfolio performance. The key to diversification is finding investments that are not closely correlated to one another. Because most stocks are relatively closely correlated and most bonds are relatively closely correlated with each other and with stocks, many investors combine tangible assets such as gold with their stock and bond portfolios in order to reduce risk. Gold and other tangible assets have historically had a very low correlation to stocks and bonds.

Although the price of gold can be volatile in the short-term, gold has maintained its value over the long-term, serving as a hedge against the erosion of the purchasing power of paper money. Gold is an important part of a diversified investment portfolio because its price increases in response to events that erode the value of traditional paper investments like stocks and bonds.

Silver

In past precious metals bull markets, investing in silver instead of investing in gold, has provided greater percentage gains because silver historically has outperformed gold in precious metals bull markets. Now, because of the huge--and growing--industrial demand for silver, silver investing could result in tremendous profits in future years.

Silver Has Enduring Value

Mankind’s timeless fascination with silver stretches back 6,000 years. As early as 700 B.C., the Mesopotamian merchants used silver as a form of exchange. Later, many other civilizations also came to recognize the inherent value of silver as a trading metal.

The ancient Greeks minted the drachma, which contained 1/8th ounce of silver; and in Rome, the basic coin was the denarius, weighing 1/7th ounce. And let’s not forget the English shilling "sterling," originally denoting a specific weight of silver, which has come to mean excellence.

Today, millions of people throughout the world recognize silver’s intrinsic value and have made it popular as an affordable investment.

This page explains how to use silver to diversify your investments and hedge against inflation. It will also introduce you to some of the most widely accepted silver investment products.

Silver is a Precious Metal

Precious metals are valued for their beauty and relative scarcity in the Earth’s crust, and their superior properties. They are very malleable, highly resistant to corrosion, superior reflectors of light and are unsurpassed as conductors of heat and electricity.

Besides signifying status and wealth, silver has been one of the most romantic and sought after of all the precious metals. Mystified by its beauty from the beginning of time, people have been drawn to remote areas of the world in search of this white, reflective metal.

Silver has often been surrounded by mystery. The Incas of Peru called it "the tears of the moon" because they were awed by silver’s strange gleam, and the Chinese believed that a silver locket hung around a child’s neck would ward off evil spirits.

Silver’s Role In Your Financial Planning

For the average investor, silver can be an effective means of diversifying investment assets and preserving wealth against the ravages of inflation.

Although the value of silver may vary, it has an intrinsic value that is immutable and permanent. Accordingly, many experts suggest that investors should include it among their investment assets.

Why? Because silver can be an important store of value. For example, between 1971 and 1981, the U.S. dollar lost more than half of its value, while silver prices rose nearly five times.

But what about the future? Nobody knows; but many financial planners still suggest including silver among the investments of their clients.